Leadership and the Next Election

On the 9th of March, the new Liberal leader should ask the current Prime Minister to stay on in a caretaker role and immediately visit the Governor General to dissolve the 44th Parliament — without ever recalling the House. The opposition would be hard-pressed to object to the early election when they have been calling for exactly that for months.

It would save the potential embarrassment of being Prime Minister for a week with an official portrait being the only future evidence of their existence. It would remove the narrative that they are an illegitimate Prime Minister, potentially not holding a seat or ever having being elected into any capacity, much less that one. And it would prevent the election being framed by the substance of a confidence motion. If the opposition is angry that the fixed election dates are not respected, one need only ask which of them had intended to keep this Parliament going until October?

For Canada and the existential danger we currently face, it would leave a government in place through the writ capable of reacting to and dealing with American economic and political interference while the election is under way.

Practically speaking, it would free up the new leader to campaign without simultaneously having to transition the government — while also trying to govern using an existing team they’d likely want to overhaul, or going through a spring session of Parliament that would last barely two months and only serve to link the new leader to the old and leave us vulnerable.

It would also be a moment in time where an election could be held in which the result would not be a foregone conclusion, with the Liberals coming out of a positive race with a fresh face and new ideas.

The new leader must, however, eschew the current team running the show, regardless of their support in the leadership. The Prime Minister’s immediate entourage spent years setting up Chrystia Freeland as Trudeau’s successor before getting distracted by the shinier object of Mark Carney. It will be critical for whichever candidate takes the leadership to establish their own team, to run the PMO and take control of the machinery of the party, and to put in a fresh set of eyes and ideas at the top.

The commonly accepted premise that the new leader has to stick it out for the long term is as obvious as it is flawed. Conventional wisdom is that Pierre Poilievre will be the next Prime Minister and that the only question is how big his victory will be. If we accept this assumption, it will become a self-fulfilling prophecy and Canada will join the rising ranks of kakistocracies under a patently incompetent Prime Minister Poilievre, long referred to by many in his own caucus as “Skippy”.

The next leader does need to stay in it for the long term, win or lose. But if Liberals premise this leadership race on losing the next election, they have already lost. You get what you campaign for; it is hard to forget the NDP celebrating becoming the official opposition in 2011 as if they had actually accomplished something. This race is for who will fight — whether as the new Prime Minister or the next Prime Minister — for Canada in the face of an existential external threat.

Since Trump’s vindictive return to the White House and Trudeau’s announced departure from Rideau Cottage, polls have shown a dramatic shift away from the Conservatives. Polls are about as trustworthy as ouija boards in reading future election results, but they boil down to a simple reminder: the next election won’t be decided until all the votes are cast.

Poilievre is in a hurry to have an election because he wants to fight Trudeau while Trudeau is still fresh in the minds of the voters. He wants to sew division and dissent in a strong and happy country. He wants to campaign on the new leader being the same as the old leader, and the new leader inheriting the old government plays right into his hands.

He needs an election before Canadians feel the full impact of the alt-right oligarchic US government he and his allies have spent the last several years cozying up to; before Canadians come to realise that Poilievre would rather be a vassal to a deeply unpopular Trump as a Prime Minister than be an opposition leader loyal to a sovereign Canada, which on its own shows where his values lie.

By March, Canadians should have a very clear picture of where our southern neighbours are going and how they see us, and an increasingly clear impression of how Pierre Poilievre is closer to Project 2025 than he is to Canadian values.

The moment the Liberals choose their leader, rather than spending months transitioning, or just taking over the existing government and rebranding it, they should grant Poilievre his wish and give him the early election he says he wants. It will be an election on ideas and vision for the future and on the very independence of Canada.

And it will be a good opportunity to remind Canadians of who Pierre is — and has always been.