False equivalency

Israel, Palestine, Ukraine, Russia

There is said to be an ancient curse: “may you live in interesting times.” With attention-grabbing existential wars taking place in the middle east and eastern Europe, and both the US and Canada marching toward right wing extremist leaders, we may be wondering quite who cast it upon us.

Wikipedia volunteers keep a list of current military conflicts around the world. You probably have not heard of many of the regional conflicts and civil wars raging all over the planet. The longest running conflict listed has been near continuous since the end of World War I.

There are, however, only two major conflicts taking place today with significant international focus. One is the war between Israel and Palestine, often described as between Israel and Hamas. The other is between Russia and Ukraine.

Frequently, opinion articles and social media commentary draw parallels between the two, angry at western democracies for supporting Ukraine, which is seen as the oppressed, while not supporting Palestine, which is also seen as the oppressed.

It’s a false equivalency. Both wars are unnecessarily brutal, but of the four major actors - Israel, Palestine, Russia, and Ukraine - only one does not actually want war.

Israel and Palestine have been at war since 1948, as noted in the above-mentioned war-tracker. Israeli leadership generally sees Palestinians as a problem to be managed rather than as a partner with whom to make peace. Palestinians, without irony, seem to regard Israel as an illegitimate country imposed on them by the West that has no business being there, and must be expunged from the map. Not exactly peace partners.

In their efforts to exist, Israel has used continuous severely repressive measures against Palestine for decades. Without them, as evidenced by four full-scale wars waged against Israel by its neighbours, it is unlikely Israel would still exist. With them, it is difficult for Israel to claim to be in any honest search for peace. It’s no-win.

Former Israeli Prime Minister Golda Meir is famously quoted as saying “If we have to have a choice between being dead and pitied, and being alive with a bad image, we'd rather be alive and have the bad image.”

And indeed, the continuous use of repressive measures against their neighbours to ensure their own survival has ensured generation after generation of Palestinians openly resent Israel and want it to be expunged from the map.

The net result is that when the refugee camp known as the Gaza strip gets to the boiling point and follows violent leadership like Hamas, seen as at least doing something, the October 7th attacks happen. Israel, being fed up of simply containing the problem, having never sincerely looked for a peaceful solution as they never saw partners, only problems to manage, responds with a massive rampage to wipe out any military capacity in an environment where the lines between military and civilian are blurry, and voila, we have the horrendous war we have today.

Russia and Ukraine are different. Significantly so. Ukraine was a member state of the USSR, and upon dissolution of the Soviet Union became once again an independent state. The invasion of Ukraine is out of an imperial desire by a dictator to reconquer past glory, and perhaps gain control of the Black Sea’s vast oil and gas reserves. With Russia inevitably wanting to relink Kaliningrad and seeing the Baltic states as critical parts of a united country, the imperial ambitions of its dictator are clear for all to see.

For the Russians, annexing Ukraine is also important in re-establishing a buffer with the West. Russia has made no secret of its fear of NATO reaching directly to its borders, and it wants to keep Ukraine at least neutral, out of the Western sphere of influence.

Supporting Ukraine, then, is common sense for the West, keeping Russian imperial and energy ambitious in check, while maintaining our own side of the buffer and getting someone else to do the dirty work of fighting and dying. Even the vast majority of financial assistance to Ukraine goes to domestic arms and equipment manufacturers rather than directly to Ukraine. That Ukraine has continued to seek help and support from the West rather than angry about being used is in its own right a surprise and is not in any way guaranteed to remain the case.

To be “pro-Palestinian” is to be pro-war. To be “pro-Israel” is to be pro-war. There are two antagonists - each with powerful backers - in this fight, and peace requires us to step back (clear of the flying shrapnel) and shout “stop, you are both wrong!”

To be “pro-Russia” is to be pro-war while to be “pro-Ukraine” is to be pro peace, pro buffering between Western culture and rekindled Russian imperial ambition, pro political and energy stability. However it is difficult, now, to be pro-Ukraine without also being pro-West. In invading Ukraine to prevent the country from becoming a Western country, Russia has all but ensured the opposite.

The only thing that could give Russia the upper hand now is if the next American President and the next Canadian Prime Minister see personal gain in acquiescing to Russian hospitality.

Interesting times, indeed.