A Referendum On Anschluss
The 2025 Canadian federal election may develop a somewhat unusual ballot question: do you want Canada to become the 51st state of the United States?
President-elect Donald Trump has brought it up on at least five separate occasions through December, and yesterday he blew it up by stating that the United States will use “economic force” to take over Canada and remove the border. He derisively calls Justin Trudeau the governor of Canada. He has also spent the holidays making comments about buying Greenland and retaking Panama — without ruling out using military force.
While American expansionism is nothing new, there is likely ulterior motivation to its rapid and widespread discussion in the wake of the election of Donald Trump and the apparent appointment of his co-president Elon Musk. The United States is already a colonial power with governance of its two exclave states of Alaska and Hawaii, and its territories of Puerto Rico, Guam, the US Virgin Islands, American Somoa, and the North Mariana Islands, without getting into its numerous overseas economic and vast international military interests.
By normalising discussion of American expansionism, it gives license to Russian and Chinese interests in, for example, Ukraine and Taiwan. It is hard for the US to say to Russia that they cannot expand while the United States is eyeing its own expansion projects. All of which conveniently suits the agenda of Russian dictator Vladimir Putin in particular.
President-elect Donald Trump has given Canada an existential ballot question that some may dare to frame: Do you want Canada annexed to the United States? For Canada as an independent country, vote Liberal. For Canada as a US protectorate or even 51st state, vote Conservative.
Pierre Poilievre has asserted that Canada will “never be the 51st state” but his overall attitude toward Trump, and his mentor Stephen Harper’s endorsement of Trump’s presidential candidacy through the International Democratic Union that he leads, makes it hard to believe he wouldn’t bend right over to Trump’s wishes. And his close ally Danielle Smith, premier of Alberta, is gung-ho for Americanisation. He may not overtly hoist the stars and stripes over Centre Block, but he’s hardly the great defender of Canadian independence he claims to be.
The danger is that, if framed as a referendum on annexation to the United States, there’s no guarantee that Canada would win, especially if “Canada” and “Liberals” are equated in the debate. Moreover, a Conservative win would be taken as a direct endorsement of a kind of Anschluss Kanadierin, the non-violent takeover of Canada by the United States for which Trump is actively advocating. In the best case, Canada would eventually make up the 51st-60th new states rather than only one, and perhaps drag the now-120 member US senate slightly toward the centre if there are any more elections to be had.
The 2025 election should be on critical issues like rebuilding our social safety net and bringing in guaranteed minimum income, rescuing universal healthcare from user-pay creep, ending obscene wealth and abject poverty, on making the economy work for everyone, on making housing accessible, on preserving the core tenets of democracy in the face of fierce authoritarian headwinds, funded and supported by foreign governments. But it won’t be about any of those things.
The new Liberal leader will have to distinguish him or herself both from Justin Trudeau and from the United States lest it nevertheless be an election about Justin Trudeau. Not his actual record, of course. Not the social and economic progress he has made for millions of Canadians who do not recognise the work he has done. Not the success in getting us through the Covid pandemic with fewer than half the deaths per capita as our American neighbours.
Pierre Poilievre does not stand for anything. He does not offer anything. He has little grasp of his files. Yet there is nevertheless little chance that allegations — or possibly even evidence — of foreign interference will catch up to him in any meaningful way. It is also profoundly unlikely that Poilievre can or will materially defend Canada in the face of co-presidents Trump and Musk.
He has been avoiding journalists since he became leader, opting instead for a year-end interview with alt-right incel hero Jordan Peterson, who recently moved to the US and who chose to go to Russia for addiction rehab at the height of the pandemic.
Trump’s win with his criminal convictions, ridiculous statements, and objectively false narratives with rising Canadian support mean that facts and ethics are going to be largely irrelevant to our election as well. There’s no requirement for Pierre to have anything tangible to offer nor any real grasp of his files. With the Conservatives modelling their message and strategy on Trump’s campaign, the question of Canada’s very independence is a fair one for the 2025 election.
The next Liberal leader will have a tall order to separate themselves from ten years of Liberal branding as “Team Trudeau". They will need to define themselves and the ballot question in a very short period of time.
The election should not be about Justin Trudeau. It should be about who should lead what kind of Canada. But it may boil down to a referendum on Canada’s sovereignty.
Totally agree...including the most troubling issue of finding someone competent that is not stuck to team Trudeau. It's a shame that more Canadians don't appreciate his good works but he brought that on himself with his condescending attitude and platitudes. With a strong but humble leader, the Libs would still be the best option for our country.
You capture our need to moderate our panic buttons on US political impact, but seriously consider the options in our next election. Right on, David.